Caterpillar Inc (CAT): stock score 38/100

Caterpillar Inc (CAT) scores 38 out of 100 (below average among 99 US stocks) on trend, stability, fundamentals, market backdrop and news tone. Every calculation step shown. Educational, not advice.

CAT scores 37.8 out of 100 (below average), up 0.8 points from last week. Its fundamentals add the most (+5.7 points: revenue growth vs a year earlier: +23.2%). Its news tone weighs on it most (-9.5 points: average FinBERT sentiment -0.153 over 38 articles). Fundamentals have not yet been tested in our research.

How the score is built

Trend: 48/100 (-0.3 points)

1. Price is -18.0% vs its 100-day average → higher than 2% of the comparison group → 2
2. 12-1 month momentum +55.7% → higher than 95% of the comparison group → 95
3. Average of the two → trend score 48.5

Tested in our research: the trend rule did not hold up out of sample.

Stability: 9/100 (-8.3 points)

1. Forecast 33.9% vs normal 29.2% → ratio 1.16
2. Ratio is higher than 91% of the comparison group → 100 minus 91 → stability 8.6 (bigger expected swings than usual → lower stability)

A machine-learning volatility model beat HAR for the S&P 500 (p = 0.04); not yet tested on single stocks. This component uses HAR.

Fundamentals: 79/100 (+5.7 points)

1. Revenue growth vs a year earlier: +23.2% → higher than 91% of the comparison group → 91
2. Operating-margin change vs a year earlier: +1.8 pp → higher than 66% of the comparison group → 66
3. Change in leverage (1 - equity/assets) vs a year earlier: not available
4. Average of available items → fundamentals score 78.6

Not yet tested in our research.

Market backdrop: 51/100 (+0.2 points)

1. VIX in its 5-year range: 60 after inverting (lower VIX → higher)
2. Breadth vs its 5-year range → 45
3. Credit trend vs its 5-year range → 15
4. Yield curve vs its 5-year range → 83
5. Average → backdrop score 50.8 (same for every stock)

Tested in our research: cross-asset indicators did not improve forecasts.

News tone: 3/100 (-9.5 points)

1. Average FinBERT sentiment -0.153 over 38 articles; shrunk towards 0 for few articles → tone -0.136
2. Tone vs this stock's own past year → news score 2.6

Tested in our research: news sentiment made predictions slightly worse.

CAT score history (weekly)

Technology stocks compared

• TXN: 68/100
• EMR: 65/100
• NVDA: 64/100
• AAPL: 61/100
• V: 56/100
• MSFT: 56/100
• GOOGL: 54/100
• GOOG: 54/100
• META: 51/100
• GE: 50/100
• IBM: 50/100
• MA: 49/100
• ACN: 47/100
• INTC: 47/100
• CRM: 45/100
• CSCO: 43/100
• ADBE: 40/100
• ORCL: 39/100
• CAT: 38/100
• PYPL: 33/100
• QCOM: 27/100

Questions

What is Caterpillar Inc's (CAT) Quantooo score today?

CAT scores 38 out of 100 on 2026-10-22, below average among 99 US stocks. It ranks 85th of 99 overall and 19th of 21 in Technology. It was 37 a week earlier.

What raises and lowers CAT's score?

Fundamentals adds the most (79/100, +5.7 points) and news tone weighs on it most (3/100, -9.5 points). The score is 50 plus each part's weighted distance from 50.

Is CAT stock volatile right now?

Our volatility model (HAR) expects annualised swings of 33.9% over the next 20 trading days, against a normal level of 29.2% for CAT: bumpier than usual for this stock. Its stability score is 9/100 compared with the other 99 US stocks.

How are Caterpillar Inc's fundamentals changing?

Revenue growth vs a year earlier: +23.2%; Operating-margin change vs a year earlier: +1.8 pp; Change in leverage (1 - equity/assets) vs a year earlier: not available. Fundamentals score: 79/100. From the 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 (period to 2026-06-30).

Does the score predict CAT's share price?

No. The score describes the stock's recent data; it is not a forecast of the share price. Our own tests found no reliable ability to rank stocks by future returns, and every test, including the failures, is published. Educational, not investment advice.

Sector: Technology. Data as of 2026-10-22. Scores describe data; they are not recommendations or predictions. Educational, not investment advice.