Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): stock score 37/100

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) scores 37 out of 100 (below average among 99 US stocks) on trend, stability, fundamentals, market backdrop and news tone. Every calculation step shown. Educational, not advice.

MRK scores 37.1 out of 100 (below average), down 5.2 points from last week. Its price trend adds the most (+7.1 points: price is +9.1% vs its 100-day average). Its news tone weighs on it most (-9.9 points: average FinBERT sentiment +0.113 over 53 articles). Our research found no proven record of these factors predicting returns.

How the score is built

Trend: 85/100 (+7.1 points)

1. Price is +9.1% vs its 100-day average → higher than 72% of the comparison group → 72
2. 12-1 month momentum +74.0% → higher than 98% of the comparison group → 98
3. Average of the two → trend score 85.4

Tested in our research: the trend rule did not hold up out of sample.

Stability: 33/100 (-3.4 points)

1. Forecast 26.7% vs normal 25.1% → ratio 1.07
2. Ratio is higher than 67% of the comparison group → 100 minus 67 → stability 32.8 (bigger expected swings than usual → lower stability)

A machine-learning volatility model beat HAR for the S&P 500 (p = 0.04); not yet tested on single stocks. This component uses HAR.

Fundamentals: 16/100 (-6.9 points)

1. Revenue growth vs a year earlier: +5.0% → higher than 26% of the comparison group → 26
2. Operating-margin change vs a year earlier: not available
3. Change in leverage (1 - equity/assets) vs a year earlier: +9.4 pp → higher than 5% of the comparison group (lower is better) → 5
4. Average of available items → fundamentals score 15.7

Not yet tested in our research.

Market backdrop: 51/100 (+0.2 points)

1. VIX in its 5-year range: 60 after inverting (lower VIX → higher)
2. Breadth vs its 5-year range → 45
3. Credit trend vs its 5-year range → 15
4. Yield curve vs its 5-year range → 83
5. Average → backdrop score 50.8 (same for every stock)

Tested in our research: cross-asset indicators did not improve forecasts.

News tone: 1/100 (-9.9 points)

1. Average FinBERT sentiment +0.113 over 53 articles; shrunk towards 0 for few articles → tone +0.103
2. Tone vs this stock's own past year → news score 0.6

Tested in our research: news sentiment made predictions slightly worse.

MRK score history (weekly)

Health care stocks compared

• ABBV: 62/100
• AMGN: 62/100
• LLY: 60/100
• MMM: 59/100
• BIIB: 58/100
• GILD: 54/100
• PFE: 50/100
• BMY: 50/100
• UNH: 49/100
• MDT: 48/100
• MRK: 37/100
• ABT: 36/100
• JNJ: 36/100

Questions

What is Merck & Co., Inc.'s (MRK) Quantooo score today?

MRK scores 37 out of 100 on 2026-10-22, below average among 99 US stocks. It ranks 86th of 99 overall and 11th of 13 in Health care. It was 42 a week earlier.

What raises and lowers MRK's score?

Trend adds the most (85/100, +7.1 points) and news tone weighs on it most (1/100, -9.9 points). The score is 50 plus each part's weighted distance from 50.

Is MRK stock volatile right now?

Our volatility model (HAR) expects annualised swings of 26.7% over the next 20 trading days, against a normal level of 25.1% for MRK: bumpier than usual for this stock. Its stability score is 33/100 compared with the other 99 US stocks.

How are Merck & Co., Inc.'s fundamentals changing?

Revenue growth vs a year earlier: +5.0%; Operating-margin change vs a year earlier: not available; Change in leverage (1 - equity/assets) vs a year earlier: +9.4 pp. Fundamentals score: 16/100. From the 10-Q filed 2026-08-07 (period to 2026-06-30).

Does the score predict MRK's share price?

No. The score describes the stock's recent data; it is not a forecast of the share price. Our own tests found no reliable ability to rank stocks by future returns, and every test, including the failures, is published. Educational, not investment advice.

Sector: Health care. Data as of 2026-10-22. Scores describe data; they are not recommendations or predictions. Educational, not investment advice.